Well, the inevitable is starting to happen - a few new web startups are starting to close up shop as they find that building an application is a lot easier than getting users to try it out, and keep coming back. Fold.com, an Ajax home page, has folded.
I’m hopeful that it’s happening, I’m also sad that it does. It’s painful when startups close shop, what about the people who poured so much energy and talent behind them?
I’m fearful of the bubble bursting, I prefer it never existed in the first place. Is this the first pop? I don’t think so, it still has ways to go before it can be a true bubble. But it might be a sign we’ve learned from the past, going back to the basics of business based on profit, not loss.
I like to see more innovation coming to Web 2.0, I love all the services I use and I’d like to see more of that. But abundance also means dilution of resources, and a lot of wasted energy. It’s too tempting to create “me too†services around social and sharing, I can certainly feel the appeal. But it also means less talent for the few services that will make a difference in the end.
My advise. Go innovate, put it out there, see if it flys. Give it your best shot. But if you realize the market is too crowed, do like fold. Early consolidation is not a bad thing, and there’s still a lot more room to make new things happen.
Nicolai Hel